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Tennis
Elena Rybakina could become world No. 1 without winning a match at the US Open, while Sabalenka, Gauff, and Pegula face far steeper climbs to the summit.
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The battle for the world No. 1 ranking at this year's US Open has turned into one of the most compelling storylines heading into Flushing Meadows. Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina, Coco Gauff, and Jessica Pegula all have a realistic shot at claiming the top spot - but the maths behind each player's path could hardly be more different.
Rybakina arrives in New York sitting atop the WTA Finals Leaderboard, and her route to No. 1 is arguably the most extraordinary. She can claim the ranking without winning a single match at the tournament - provided Sabalenka, Pegula, and Gauff all fail to lift the trophy. Should Rybakina reach the semi-finals, the debate is over entirely: the top ranking becomes hers regardless of other results.
The current world No. 1 boasts a staggering 19-1 record at Flushing Meadows across the past three seasons, including back-to-back titles in 2024 and 2025 and a runner-up finish behind Gauff in 2023. Yet recent form tells a less convincing story. Quarter-final exits at the French Open, a fourth-round loss at Wimbledon, and round-of-16 defeats at both the Canadian Open and Cincinnati Open have raised questions about her momentum. To retain her ranking, Sabalenka must win the title while Rybakina falls before the semi-finals.
Both Gauff and Pegula face the same steep requirement: win the entire tournament and hope Rybakina exits before the last four. Gauff, fresh off a Cincinnati title triumph, appears to be peaking at the right moment. Iga Swiatek has also been in strong recent form, adding further intrigue to the draw even if she sits outside the No. 1 conversation.
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Copyright 2026 VIASPORT
Eva Hernández, Editor-in-Chief
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